Over the last
40 years food production increased much faster than population.
In the late 1960s
the leading view was expressed by Paul
Ehrlich who wrote in The Population Bomb that agricultural
yields had hit a brick wall. Those who thought crop yields could keep
rising were fooling themselves. Ehrlich and others believed this, in part,
because the last few years of the 1960s saw a modest decline in the size
of grain crops. Even today if the worldÂ’s output of some crop is static
or declines over a two or three year period, someone concerned about population
will stand up and say “Aha – finally weÂ’ve entered the age of declining
food.” But crop yields follow a rather regular pattern of declines
and increases based on market fluctuations. Those who rely strictly on
short term projections ignore the long-term trends.
Although there were several
short term declines along the way, crop yields continued to increase.
The following chart illustrates the growth rates for wheat, rice and maize
from 1951 to 1990.
|
World wheat, rice and maize yield growth rates, |
||||
|
1951-60 |
1961-70 |
1970-80 |
1980-90 |
|
|
Wheat |
1.84 |
3.06 |
1.99 |
2.89 |
|
Rice |
1.27 |
2.40 |
1.63 |
2.34 |
|
Maize |
2.74 |
2.48 |
2.84 |
1.01 |
A drought in the United
States in 1988 brought the growth in maize yields down, but there was
significant growth in that crop nonetheless. Other than that glitch, crop
yield growth was spectacular considering that any significant growth was
said to be impossible by Ehrlich, William
and Paul Paddock and a whole host of others.
I would like to see data on food production growth beyond 1990 and see if it is still keeping up with population growth
The results above listed are conveniently the ones obtained due to the “green revolution” and by no means they reflect the regular world food production growth.