Egypt has long been the largest user of water from the Nile, but countries upstream are coming closer to more intensively using that water, which Boutros Ghali predicts will lead to conflict between Egypt and countries such as Ethiopia, Tanzania and Kenya.

Boutros Ghali noted that Egypt’s population has more than tripled over the last 50 years and is still growing, putting heavy demand on Nile water resources. Boutros Ghali told the BBC,

The security of Egypt is related to the relation between Egypt and Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya and other African countries. The real problem is that we need an additional quantity of water and we will not have an additional quantity of water unless we find an a agreement with the upstream countries which also need water and have not used Nile water until now.

But the BBC interview failed to mention a major overriding problem with water in the Middle East and Africa — it is almost universally mismanaged, since it relies on bureaucracies setting water targets and policies rather than letting markets dictate the true cost of water.

In Egypt, for example, 85 percent of water goes to agriculture, and agricultural water use is micromanaged to the point where government committees plan out a year in advanced which crops will be allowed to grow where and how water will be allocated among them. Not surprisingly the result is large-scale inefficiency and misallocation of water resources.

Mismanagement of water is almost universal, even in countries such as the United States which don’t yet have severe water problems. But places like the Middle East and Northern African simply cannot afford to protect industries or individuals from the true cost and scarcity of water. Unfortunately, doing so is likely to prove very politically unpopular, but one can always hope that developing countries might prefer transparent markets in water to conflicts between states that may lead to larger problems, while leaving the underlying problem uncorrected.

Source:

Ex-UN chief warns of water wars. Mike Thompson, The BBC, February 2, 2005.

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In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, the report notes,

The region is off track to meet every Millennium Development Goal. It has the highest rate of undernourishment, with one-third of the population below the
minimum level of dietary energy consumption. Sub-Saharan Africa has the
lowest primary enrollment rates of all regions. Despite recent progress, gender
disparity at the primary level is 0.86, the lowest of all regions

In West Asia,

This region, which includes many countries typically classified as part of the
Middle East, is off track for a majority of the Goals. Both income poverty
and hunger are increasing, and progress toward gender equality has been slow.
Primary enrollments increased only from 81 percent in 1990 to 83 percent in
2001, and under-five mortality fell only slightly from 68 per 1,000 live births
to 61 in the same period. Maternal mortality remains high, and infectious diseases
such as TB are still a threat. While urban areas are on track to meet the
water and sanitation Goal, rural areas are lagging behind. Youth unemployment
is a significant concern in the region.

Certainly there are some success stories, but even these are moderated by mixed results. North Africa, for example, is on target to meet the development goals of halving poverty, but its economic growth has had little to no impact on the rate of undernourished children which remains today at roughly the same level it was 25 years ago!

Sachs sites four reasons that the world has failed to make more progress. First and foremost is governance failure. As Sachs’ report blandly puts it,

Economic development stalls when governments do not uphold the rule of
law, pursue sound economic policy, make appropriate public investments,
manage a public administration, protect basic human rights, and support civil
society organizations

To put it a bit less politic, if you’re stuck in Zimbabwe, you’re screwed.

Another reason for the failure is what Sachs calls “poverty traps” — essentially areas of the world that are too poor to do anything about their poverty. Finally there are pockets of poverty, where certain areas of a country persist in poverty while the rest of the nation prospers, and specific policy neglect (South Africa’s bizarre approach to the AIDS crisis over the past decade, for example).

The report then offers a complex analysis which can be boiled down to this: past efforts at aiding countries to climb out of poverty have failed because they have been misdirected and based on incorrect assumptions. So donor countries and NGOs should stop making those mistakes and everything will be right as rain. Specifically, the report recommends concentrating any aid dollars on low-income countries which have good governance in place.

Of course the report includes as such potential good bets countries such as Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and Nepal, all three of which have serious internal political problems which pose a formidable problem for would be aid donors.

Which ultimately explains why most developed countries don’t come close to the Millennium goal of donating 0.7 percent of their GDP to foreign aid. Given all of the complexities that developing nations face, its just not easy to predict what the effects of aid will ultimately be. Given the failures of external aid projects over the past 3-4 decades, aid these days seems to be directed at what is politically popular in the donor country rather than what makes sense for the receiving country (which is why, for example, money for HIV amelioration is such a hot topic in the United States, but the word “malaria” is hardly ever heard in public discourse about foreign aid).

If you’re as likely to fail as succeed anyway, might as well get some votes out of it.

Source:

UN urges rapid action on poverty. The BBC, January 17, 2005.

Investing In Development: A Practical Plan to Achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Millennium Project, 2005.

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According to the BBC, Africa as a whole only sees about $15 billion total each year. That’s just pathetic.

Moreover, even in countries where there are not ongoing wars or endemic corruption, there is plenty to trouble investors. South African president Thabo Mbeki’s close relationship and support of Zimbabwe strongman Robert Mugabe, for example, must surely give some investors pause.

Unfortunately, there seems to be no end in sight to such problems, as Africa seems unable to get itself off a vicious cycle of war and corruption.

Source:

Africa conflicts ‘scare investors’. The BBC, November 22, 2004.

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In the developed world, rates of schooling at primary and secondary levels are almost identical by sex. But in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, only 60 percent of girls attend school and worldwide the Global Campaign for Education claims that 65 million girls never attend school. Moreover, the GCE claims that two-thirds of the worlds almost 900 million illiterate adults are women.

As Annan points out, the cost of not educating girls is an expense that developing nations cannot afford,

If we are to succeed in our efforts to build a more healthy, peaceful and equitable world, the classrooms of the world have to be full of girls as well as boys. Every year of schooling completed by them will be a step towards eradicating poverty and disease.

. . .

Study after study has taught us that there is no tool for development more effective than the education of girls. No other policy is likely to raise economic productivity, lower infant and maternal mortality, improve nutrition and promote health, including the prevention of HIV/AIDS.

The BBC notes that the World Bank has set a goal to achieve sexual equality in schooling by 2005, which is one of those goals which will not come close to being met.

Source:

Annan plea for girls’ schooling. The BBC, April 8, 2003.

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The United Nations has set a goal of reducing by half the number of people without access to safe water and sanitation by 2015. But that seems very unlikely, especially as the forum itself was bogged down by competing interest groups and debate about the best approaches to bring about this admirable goal.

China received praise for its efforts to collect rainwater which has yielded enough drinking water for 15 million people. Such programs, however, rely on good governance which cannot necessarily be guaranteed over time. India also experienced a lot of initial success with a rainwater collection system which then fell victim to lack of maintenance and oversight.

But the oddest thing was the private vs. public water debate. A coalition of NGOs called the Blue Planet Project was unhappy that the last World Water Forum had given its approval for privatization of water facilities. The Blue Planet Project insists that access to water is a “right” that should be guaranteed by the state.

Right, since good governance of public resources is such a hallmark of developing countries that they are the obvious choice to manage water facilities. Privatizing water in such countries has the specific advantage of removing water management from the political realm where corruption has led to the mismanagement of water and other resources in the developing world.

Sources:

Forum tackles world water crisis. Tim Hirsch, The BBC, March 16, 2003.

World meets to tackle water crisis. Ben Sutherland, The BBC, March 15, 2003.

‘Ideological battle’ over world’s water. Tim Hirsch, The BBC, March 18, 2003.

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In the Horn of Africa alone, 14 million people face starvation unless the World Food Program begins receiving donor aid soon. Ten million of those at risk are in Ethiopia which, like other countries in the region, has been hit hard by drought. According to WFP executive director James Morris,

At least 10 million people will need food aid just in Ethiopia. But if this month’s rains stop early, up to 14 million people there will require urgent assistance.

These figures are large and dramatic and the international community should take notice. Unless we come to grips with this problem very soon we face the real possibility of witnessing a devastating wave of human suffering and death as early as next year.

Morris chalked up the Horn’s problems simply to drought, conveniently ignoring the destabilizing effect of ongoing hostilities between Ethiopia and Eritrea which has made it difficult to sustain an agricultural industry in either country.

Source:

Aid please as Horn of Africa raises hungry to 40m. James Astill, The Guardian, October 29, 2002.

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State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said that,

After careful consideration . . . we came to the conclusion that the UN Population Fund monies go to Chinese agencies that carry out coercive programs. Secretary of State Colin Powell decided that . . . US funds for family planning and reproductive health will be spent through the United States Agency for International Development programs and not through UNFPA.

Both China and the United Nations criticized the move.

The UNFPA argued that its activities in China do not involve aiding coerced abortions or sterilizations. UNFPA director of information Stirling Scruggs told The BBC, “We are very sad, and we are shocked because we have never been involved in coercion in China or anywhere else in the world.”

That is a very odd sort of bifurcation. The UNFPA’s view seems to be that it is okay to work with governmental organizations that engage in coercive practices as long as the UNFPA’s work is focused on noncoercive methods. That seems to be an extreme case of splitting hairs. As the State Department noted,

UNFPA’s support of, and involvement in, China’s population planning activities allows the Chinese Government to implement more effectively its programme of coerced abortion.

The UNFPA’s idea that if it takes care of the noncoercive programs and leaves China to deal with the coercive aspects that it has no moral culpability in the matter is absurd.

Sources:

China attacks US baby fund cuts. The BBC, July 23, 2002.

US to axe family planning funds. The BBC, July 22, 2002.

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At the same time that the World Food Program and other agencies are having difficulties obtaining food aid for starving millions in sub-Saharan Africa, the United Nations is sponsoring the Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development which will cost a rather unsustainable $55 million mainly to provide a stage for world leaders to make promises and pledges that will never be followed through.

Adelman writes,

It’s another massive waste of money. Another diversion from the real needs of the poor. Another boondoggle for the rich to jet somewhere exotic to gush over their concern for the poor.

Apparently the United Nations’ theory is that if they get enough blowhard politicians on a single stage they can talk world poverty to death.

Source:

A Summit Hard to Stomach. Kenneth Adelman, FoxNews.Com, August 28, 2002.

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About 65,000 people, including 100 heads of state, are scheduled to attend the summit. In a memo sent to UN staff, an assistant to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned that,

We must keep in mind that this conference is taking place in the midst of a major food crisis in southern Africa, affecting 13 million people. . . . It would be wise to refrain from excessive levels of hospitality, and any event sponsored by the United Nations should be of modest, even frugal dimensions.

The World Food Summit, held in Italy, was widely criticized for the sumptuous dinners and banquets enjoyed by those who attended the event, as well as the shopping sprees reportedly taken by delegates from developing countries.

Source:

UN ban on feasts during famine. The BBC, August 6, 2002.

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According to UN statistics, by 2050, there will be more than two billion people over the age of 60. For the first time in human history, there will be more people over 60 than there are under 15. That will represent an enormous social and cultural shift.

In 1950, the average life expectancy for the world was a mere 44 years. By 2050 it is expected to be 77 years.

But few people, especially in government, seem to take the time to stop and marvel at what an amazing feat increasing average life expectancy by almost more than 40 percent in a hundred years is.

Instead, of course, the stories in the BBC and elsewhere focus on what a problem this is going to be. Health care costs are rising, people in developing countries who suffer from diseases early in life have a much lower quality of life after they reach 60, etc.

Some days I suspect medical researchers could announce the discovery of a wonder drug that cures all disease and triples life expectancy and the United Nations would rush out a report within a month on the horrible challenges such an advance would impose on the nations of the world.

So let me say it for them — there are today more people alive who are living longer at a higher standard of living than at any time in human history. It is a great time to be alive.

Source:

Ageing ‘is an international problem’. The BBC, April 8,

Aging World Population Presents New Opportunities, Problems is a post from: Overpopulation.Com

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