Under the UN’s medium variant scenario, world population will reach 9.1 billion in 2050. This represents a slight upward revision from more recent estimates that had world population reaching just 8.9 billion in 2050.

Almost all of that growth will occur in the developing world. Ninety-five percent of all population growth today is occurring in the developing world compared to just 5 percent in the developed world according to the UN Population Division. Of that estimated 9.1 billion, only slightly over 1.2 billion will live in countries that are currently designated as developed — about what the population of the developed world is today.

The medium variant assumes that the total fertility for women worldwide is going to drop from its current level of 2.6 to just slightly over 2 by 2050. If the worldwide TFR average were to only decline slightly to just over 2.5 — the high variant scenario — world population would reach 10.6 billion by 2050. If it were to decline faster, however, and fall to about 1.5 — the low variant — world population would reach just 7.6 billion in 2050.

Global life expectancy continues to rise. The Population Division reports that global life expectancy rose from an estimated 47 years in 1950-1955 to 65 years in 2000-2005. By 2045-50, global life expectancy is expected to rise to 75 years. In developed countries, where life expectancy averages 76 years today, it is expected to reach 82 years by 2045-50.

Those life expectancy projections assume that the developing world will be able to implement effective programs and policies to halt excess mortality due to HIV/AIDS. Whether or not this happens remains to be seen. As the Population Division reports, HIV/AIDS has taken a serious toll on life expectancy in some parts of Africa. In Southern Africa, for example, life expectancy fell from 62 years in 1990-1995 to just 48 years in 2000-2005, and is expected to drop even further to just 43 years over the next decade. The Population Division projects that 43 will represent a bottoming out of the crisis and that life expectancy in Southern Africa will then slowly begin to rise again.

One of the main effects of the worldwide decline in total fertility rates will be an aging of the population that is unprecedented in human history. According to the Population Division, the number of people over the age of 60 is expected to triple from an estimated 672 million in 2005 to a whopping 1.9 billion by 2050. There will also be a 4.5-fold increase in the number of people over the age of 80, from an estimated 86 million today to 394 million in 2050.

Source:

World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision. (PDF) United Nations Population Division, February 2005.

Latest UN Projections: World Population Will Reach 9.1 Billion By 2050 is a post from: Overpopulation.Com

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

For men, average life expectance is now at 74.4 years, and for women at 79.8 years. Broken down by race, the average life expectancy for whites is 77.7 years and for blacks 72.2 years.

Statistician Elizabeth Arias who was the lead author of the CDC’s study of life expectancy told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that changes in behavior played a major role in increasing life expectancies,

For instance, the decline in smoking — from 50 percent of the population in the 1950s to about 25 percent now — has a lot to do with decreases in heart disease and cancer.

Source:

Life expectancy climbs to record high in America. M.A.J. McKenna, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, March 15, 2003.

Life Expectancy in United States Hits New High is a post from: Overpopulation.Com

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

According to UN statistics, by 2050, there will be more than two billion people over the age of 60. For the first time in human history, there will be more people over 60 than there are under 15. That will represent an enormous social and cultural shift.

In 1950, the average life expectancy for the world was a mere 44 years. By 2050 it is expected to be 77 years.

But few people, especially in government, seem to take the time to stop and marvel at what an amazing feat increasing average life expectancy by almost more than 40 percent in a hundred years is.

Instead, of course, the stories in the BBC and elsewhere focus on what a problem this is going to be. Health care costs are rising, people in developing countries who suffer from diseases early in life have a much lower quality of life after they reach 60, etc.

Some days I suspect medical researchers could announce the discovery of a wonder drug that cures all disease and triples life expectancy and the United Nations would rush out a report within a month on the horrible challenges such an advance would impose on the nations of the world.

So let me say it for them — there are today more people alive who are living longer at a higher standard of living than at any time in human history. It is a great time to be alive.

Source:

Ageing ‘is an international problem’. The BBC, April 8,

Aging World Population Presents New Opportunities, Problems is a post from: Overpopulation.Com

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.

According to a recent conference on African population issues held in Ethiopia, average life expectancy in Africa has declined by almost 15 years over the past two decades. The biggest culprit is infectious disease. AIDS and other infectious diseases are pushing life expectancy to extremely low rates in several African countries.

In both Botswana and Malawi, for example, life expectancy is below 40 years according to UNAIDS. By 2005, according to the recent conference, life expectancy for Africa as a whole be only 48 years, compared to 74.9 and 81.2 years for European men and women respectively.

Source:

Life expectancy still falling in Africa. The BB, February 11, 2002.

Life Expectancy in Africa Continues Decline is a post from: Overpopulation.Com

No related posts.

Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.